Honorary Research Fellow
BSc DPhil
Professor Nick Golding is an infectious disease modeller with a focus on globally-important pathogens. His work combines mathematical and statistical modelling, ecology, and public health. Since completing a PhD on modelling mosquito-borne diseases at the University of Oxford, he has collaborated with epidemiologists from around the world developing models and maps of the risk posed by some of the world’s most important and neglected diseases – including malaria, Dengue fever, Chikungunya, and Ebola.
After moving to the University of Melbourne in 2016, Professor Golding has worked closely with ecologists both on modelling methods and on urgent health issues like Melbourne’s Buruli ulcer outbreak – where risk to humans depends on the ecology of mosquitos and possums. In 2020 Professor Golding joined the Malaria Atlas Project at Telethon Kids Institute as Director of Malaria Ecology. He is a member of the Australian national modelling team, advising national and state governments on their response to COVID-19 throughout the pandemic.
-
Projects
-
Publications
April 2024
Spatio-temporal spread of artemisinin resistance in Southeast Asia
Current malaria elimination targets must withstand a colossal challenge-resistance to the current gold standard antimalarial drug, namely artemisinin derivatives. If artemisinin resistance significantly expands to Africa or India, cases and malaria-related deaths are set to increase substantially.
Published research Infectious Diseases Geospatial Health and Development MalariaMarch 2024Estimating the impact of test–trace–isolate–quarantine systems on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Australia
Australian states and territories used test-trace-isolate-quarantine (TTIQ) systems extensively in their response to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-2021. We report on an analysis of Australian case data to estimate the impact of test-trace-isolate-quarantine systems on SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
Published research Infectious Diseases Geospatial Health and Development COVID-19 Infectious Disease Ecology and ModellingMarch 2024The global distribution and the risk prediction of relapsing fever group Borrelia: a data review with modelling analysis
The recent discovery of emerging relapsing fever group Borrelia (RFGB) species, such as Borrelia miyamotoi, poses a growing threat to public health. However, the global distribution and associated risk burden of these species remain uncertain. We aimed to map the diversity, distribution, and potential infection risk of RFGB.
Published research Infectious Diseases Geospatial Health and DevelopmentMarch 2024Estimating measures to reduce the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia to guide a ‘National Plan’ to reopening
The availability of COVID-19 vaccines promised a reduction in the severity of disease and relief from the strict public health and social measures (PHSMs) imposed in many countries to limit spread and burden of COVID-19. We were asked to define vaccine coverage thresholds for Australia's transition to easing restrictions and reopening international borders.
Published research Immunisation Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Infectious Disease Ecology and Modelling Geospatial and TuberculosisJanuary 2024Introduction of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes carrying wAlbB Wolbachia sharply decreases dengue incidence in disease hotspots
Partial replacement of resident Aedes aegypti mosquitoes with introduced mosquitoes carrying certain strains of inherited Wolbachia symbionts can result in transmission blocking of dengue and other viruses of public health importance. Wolbachia strain wAlbB is an effective transmission blocker and stable at high temperatures, making it particularly suitable for hot tropical climates.
Published research Infectious Diseases Geospatial Health and DevelopmentNovember 2023Comparison of new computational methods for spatial modelling of malaria
Geostatistical analysis of health data is increasingly used to model spatial variation in malaria prevalence, burden, and other metrics. Traditional inference methods for geostatistical modelling are notoriously computationally intensive, motivating the development of newer, approximate methods for geostatistical analysis or, more broadly, computational modelling of spatial processes.
Published research Geospatial Health and Development Malaria Geospatial MappingAugust 2023COVID-19 vaccine coverage targets to inform reopening plans in a low incidence setting
Since the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in 2019 through to mid-2021, much of the Australian population lived in a COVID-19-free environment. This followed the broadly successful implementation of a strong suppression strategy, including international border closures. With the availability of COVID-19 vaccines in early 2021, the national government sought to transition from a state of minimal incidence and strong suppression activities to one of high vaccine coverage and reduced restrictions but with still-manageable transmission.
Published research Immunisation Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Infectious Disease Ecology and ModellingApril 2023Statistical modeling based on structured surveys of Australian native possum excreta harboring Mycobacterium ulcerans predicts Buruli ulcer occurrence in humans
Buruli ulcer (BU) is a neglected tropical disease caused by infection of subcutaneous tissue with Mycobacterium ulcerans. BU is commonly reported across rural regions of Central and West Africa but has been increasing dramatically in temperate southeast Australia around the major metropolitan city of Melbourne, with most disease transmission occurring in the summer months.
Published research Infectious Diseases Geospatial Health and DevelopmentJanuary 2023A modelling approach to estimate the transmissibility of SARS-CoV 2 during periods of high, low, and zero case incidence
Against a backdrop ofwidespread global transmission, a number of countries have successfully brought large outbreaks of COVID-19 under control and maintained near-elimination status. A key element of epidemic response is the tracking of disease transmissibility in near real-time. During major out-breaks, the effective reproduction number can be estimated froma time-series of case, hospitalisation or death counts. In low or zero incidence settings, knowing the potential for the virus to spread is a response priority.
Published research Infectious Diseases Geospatial Health and Development COVID-19January 2022A fractional land use change model for ecological applications
By mapping land use under projections of socio-economic change, ecological changes can be predicted to inform conservation decision-making. We present a land use model that enables the fine-scale mapping of land use change under future scenarios. Its predictions can be used as input to virtually all existing spatially-explicit ecological models.
Published research Geospatial Health and DevelopmentJanuary 2022Modelling temperature-driven changes in species associations across freshwater communities
Due to global climate change–induced shifts in species distributions, estimating changes in community composition through the use of Species Distribution Models has become a key management tool. Being able to determine how species associations change along environmental gradients is likely to be pivotal in exploring the magnitude of future changes in species’ distributions.
Published research Geospatial Health and Development -
Education and Qualifications